By John D. Macari Jr. — The Finest Unfiltered News
When it comes to calling elections, Polymarket does no such thing. Today however political pundits, campaigns and even the public look to it as an indicator for the result of future elections. The “prediction market” is being hyped as a peek into the political future but what everyone forgets is it, completely misread the 2025 NYC Democrat mayoral primary, crowning Andrew Cuomo early while dismissing the eventual winner Zohran Mamdani. Once the ballots were cast, the so-called “smart money” looked like it needed a refresher on NYC politics.
DEMOCRAT PRIMARY SWINGS
| Date | Zohran Mamdani Odds (%) | Andrew Cuomo Odds (%) | Tale of the Tape |
|---|---|---|---|
| April 2025 | 8% | 80% | In April Mamdani wasn’t even cracking 10%. . |
| June 17, 2025 | 23% | 76% | A week before the primary, Cuomo sits at 76%. |
| June 23, 2025 | 47% | 53% | The night before the primary, traders panic and flip-flop but Cuomo still remains in ahead. |
| June 25, 2025 | 100% | 0% | Mamdani wins the primary. |
“After the Democrat primary for Mayor we learned the percentage points that created so much buzz and political fodder were comprised of gamblers NOT NYC voters.”
The result of the primary tells the story: Polymarket didn’t predict Mamdani’s win, it reacted to it.
A CASINO, NOT A POLL
Polymarket calls itself the “world’s largest prediction market.” But anyone who payed attention during the democrat primary for NYC Mayor knows the truth: it’s a casino not a predictor of outcome. A handful of big gamblers “whales” can swing the odds with a single click. It makes for great headlines and buzz in the legacy news and on on social media, while sending traders scrambling. But does it use early voting models? Compare campaign’s ground support? Analyze the Polls? Fuhgettaboutit, you can’t predict the outcome of elections based upon one of the world biggest vice’s.
Betting sites like Polymarket can shape voter perception by creating a false sense of voter support or lack thereof a particular candidate. If odds swing heavily toward one candidate, voters may see the race as over, some may not vote if they feel their candidate has no chance of winning. These sites are also now driving both positive and negative media coverage around candidates. Potential donors would likely follow this false hype. Another issue, that may arise is if big political donors jump in with massive bets, they can easily sway public perception in order to achieve their desired outcome. If it hasn’t already it has the ability to turn our democratic process into a corporate controlled charade.
THE ONLY MARKET THAT MATTERS
For real New Yorkers, the takeaway is simple: Don’t let Polymarket or even a Poll for that matter pick your mayor.
A casino doesn’t know your neighborhood, your candidate, or your city. It doesn’t know what you or your neighbors care about it only knows what gamblers think. So when it comes to shaping City Hall, or any other elected office remember: The only true predictor of an elections outcome, comes from the votes that are cast inside a voting booth on election day.
